Starting to feel like cold war Russia!

[MiniDave]

This is not a political rant, rather an observation of what's going on out there in the world.

The pandemic is really starting to show how much it has affected absolutely everything - the price of oil is climbing taking gasoline with with it - the other day my brother got stuck trying to drive home from London to the midlands where he lives - he was out of fuel and there was none - he tried 14 stations before he gave up and got a hotel in Stow. I guess he found some the next morning as he wrote me from home - but it's not only fuel that's getting hard to get - it's practically everything

I think we're going to see the return of the toilet paper wars soon - and not just for paper.

Prices of wood products of all kinds absolutely went thru the roof this past year, and while some have come back down it's still nothing like it was pre-pandemic.

Today I tried to buy a can a spray paint - went to three different stores before I came home empty handed and looked online - where I found three cans in a store about 30 miles away. As I walked thru the paint department I noticed all the gallon can shelves were fairly empty, with only one or two gallons left where usually they would be stacked 10 deep and full from top to bottom. 

My wife likes a particular type of dog food for the boys - she was only able to find one bag at Petco and had to look online to find that one - fortunately it was at a store not too far from us. She's started looking for some more so she can stock up - if everyone starts doing that it could start looking like the old stories of Russia - where people stood on line for hours to buy a pair of shoes or toilet paper.

I wonder how long and how deep the shortages will go before things smooth over again?

One thing's for sure, I thing we're in for a significant bout of inflation - people are demanding big wage increases to do what used to be entry level jobs - which means the price of a McDonalds burger will be heading up too.....along with everything else.

Those of us on fixed incomes or in lower level jobs will get hit hardest IMHO.

What do you think?

[MPlayle]

The funny thing about the price of gas: the pump prices are still nearly as expensive as when the price per barrel of crude oil was over $100.  They hardly went down when the price for crude was at $50 per barrel.

[MiniDave]

The gasoline problem for my brother in England wasn't due to a lack of fuel, but rather truckers to drive it to the station. Apparently when Brexit happened,  a large number of drivers from European countries would have difficulty getting across the border, so they stayed in Europe.

Similar problems happening all over the supply chain, with boats stacked up deep in the harbors waiting to be unloaded etc.

[gr8kornholio]

Problem in this country is our government, regardless of party, thinks the only way to solve problems is throwing money at it.  During the pandemic my job nor my industry was ever in any danger, and even though I'm supporting a family of 4 my income is well above any National average.  But I still got every stipend check issued.  I'm not one to turn down money so thanks but if you are going to continue to pay people to stay home why would they go to work.  Everything around Dallas is hiring.  Like every thing. But if government is going to pay me $15 an hour to stay home then why would I work for it. 

[ve9aa]

PART of the problem is.........almost everything is made off-shore.

I'd happily pay double for something "made in Canada" or "made in America" to get a little better quality product but those choices have mostly been removed for us for most products.

Sad but true.

Why is (most) everything seemingly Chinesium?  Greed?

Sigh

[bikewiz]

It's no fun where I'm sitting. I just placed a back order for bikes, delivery date? Try June of 2023.
Good luck finding employees, the local Burger King has a sign out front "$17/hr As many hours as you want", so time and a half over 40 = $25.50 for flipping burgers....
We hired a 16 yr old kid, still in HS, for weekends. MA minimum is $13.50/hr oh but he doesn't want that, he wants $15/hr no license, no experience, and we happily pay because we know he can get more from BK, Landscapers, gas stations, and everyone else.

[94touring]

Brexit accounted for some truckers not crossing the border but the main lack of truckers was the complete shut down. Which means instead of having 40k new truckers a year they went to 16k.  The lockdown closed training facilities. 

You'll start to see more automation in fast food restaurants. Driving back from Colorado last month I popped into a McDonald's to grab something quick. Walked in rather than do the drive through since the line was long. No one working the counter. Literally no one. Ordered at the kiosk.  Stood there forever and finally women came out, shouted my number, and rushed to the back. Worth noting I was the only customer in the store too.  Not receiving my cup and having no employee standing there I concluded it would be awhile. So I walked behind the counter and rummaged around till I found a medium cup.  Fast forward a couple weeks I popped into a CVS real quick to grab a drink on my way to a doctors appointment. No one working the counter and I stood there for awhile. I tossed a few bucks on the counter and left with drink in hand.

[jedduh01]

I'm in the Appliance industry and we are battling production losses from Component availability and personnel to build product.

Components like resins to make bins and doors  and drawers .  Chips( microchips) of course and now Connectors ( plugs for any item in an appliance)
  We had to Air freight MANNNYYYY things from Asian suppliers to the US so we wouldn't loose production in our own factories.
 
YES these costs will be passed along - with that we are already projecting forecast demand decreasing into Middle of 22' due to the higher prices.
   Items I order overseas the factories are booked thru Q22022- im planning purchases for Late July + August next year for what needs to be in the US for that time period.
Supply chain will be a factory for the next 12 - 18 - 24 months.

Apparently Christmas product availability is at risk .. as stuck on containers in ships waiting to get into port... May all arrive after December!

I also have a friend in the Bicycle industry... also seeing lead times for bike parts being 365+ Days = 2023 for some gears  shifters or other certain parts.
   

[MiniDave]

While things turn gloomy in the UK - other than Ireland (northern?) where they still have an ongoing relationship with the EU, and where they've increased productivity and opened several new ports to container ships - it seems the rest of the EU is chuckling right along business as usual.

I read an account of a Brit couple who went to Spain for holiday a few days ago - the que to get thru security and onto the plane was 2 hours long, and once off they were herded into another line for Brit passengers only - another two hour wait to get thru security - all while the EU passengers had no lines whatsoever.

Once in town they found grocers with fully stocked shelves and full bins of fresh produce......and people happily conversing at outdoor coffee bars and restaurants, where in England they had seen fist fights break out over places in line to get petrol.

Dark days there indeed......I'm sure it will all sort itself out eventually, but I'm betting the majority of those who voted to leave are now questioning that decision.

[MiniDave]

We went to see the latest Bond flick last night, and there were all of 6 people in a theatre that would hold a few hundred.....how long can they stay in business this way?

Prices were back to pre-pandemic levels, about $20 for tix (senior discount) and the same for a medium popcorn and two small sodas.

[BruceK]

I read an account of a Brit couple who went to Spain for holiday a few days ago - the que to get thru security and onto the plane was 2 hours long, and once off they were herded into another line for Brit passengers only - another two hour wait to get thru security - all while the EU passengers had no lines whatsoever.

Um. That's not exactly surprising. At all. Whenever you travel internationally and you need to go through customs and immigration the non-locals (i.e. the foreigners),  always have a much longer line to clear than the locals.  And post-Brexit the UK is out of the Schengen Agreement.  You can be sure the reverse happened when this couple returned from Spain to the UK -  they had a much shorter line than everyone else from non-UK counties did in trying to get into the UK.   

[94touring]

I read an account of a Brit couple who went to Spain for holiday a few days ago - the que to get thru security and onto the plane was 2 hours long, and once off they were herded into another line for Brit passengers only - another two hour wait to get thru security - all while the EU passengers had no lines whatsoever.

Um. That's not exactly surprising. At all. Whenever you travel internationally and you need to go through customs and immigration the non-locals (i.e. the foreigners),  always have a much longer line to clear than the locals.  And post-Brexit the UK is out of the Schengen Agreement.  You can be sure the reverse happened when this couple returned from Spain to the UK -  they had a much shorter line than everyone else from non-UK counties did in trying to get into the UK.

Correct

[Brit_in_TX]

I read an account of a Brit couple who went to Spain for holiday a few days ago - the que to get thru security and onto the plane was 2 hours long, and once off they were herded into another line for Brit passengers only - another two hour wait to get thru security - all while the EU passengers had no lines whatsoever.

Um. That's not exactly surprising. At all. Whenever you travel internationally and you need to go through customs and immigration the non-locals (i.e. the foreigners),  always have a much longer line to clear than the locals.  And post-Brexit the UK is out of the Schengen Agreement.  You can be sure the reverse happened when this couple returned from Spain to the UK -  they had a much shorter line than everyone else from non-UK counties did in trying to get into the UK.

The UK was never part of the Schengen agreement.  However, under EU rules all EU countries had to treat all EU citizens the same.  Now the British are no longer EU citizens they go through the same lines as if you were from any country in the world.

The driver shortage in the UK has been caused by a combination of factors, but one that has not been widely reported here is the number of owner/operators has dropped hugely as the tax rules were tightened up and loads of them left the industry as it was no longer worth it to them. 

[BruceK]

Ah, Craig. Thanks for the clarification on the UK and the Schengen Agreement.

[94touring]

Didn't know about the tax laws.  But yeah anytime I'm clearing customs as a foreign passenger and not a working crew member it's a long process. 

[Brit_in_TX]

Didn't know about the tax laws.  But yeah anytime I'm clearing customs as a foreign passenger and not a working crew member it's a long process.

Global Entry was well worth the financial and time investment when I was travelling from the UK to the USA frequently.

One time returning from Spain, my wife had to go through the nonEU line in the UK.  She was one of about 5 passengers in that line, I was in a line of about 200 people.  I got through an hour before she did as the border agent was checking everything.  He wanted to call her boss at one point (see was on a work visa at that point) to confirm she still worked for them, until she pointed out that it was 2am on a Tuesday morning and she didn't think he would answer his phone!  After that she got the UK equivalent of Global Entry.